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Stock Market Psychology: How to Think on the Stock Market

Does the saying seem familiar to you?

All head thing.

He is as unremarkable as he is on the stock market. Stock market psychology is perhaps the most underrated discipline in finance, and yet, in my opinion, it is the most important. Because only with the right mindset and knowledge about you and your innate weaknesses, you can have long-term success with stocks.

content

  • What is the Prospect Theory in Exchange Psychology?
  • Why you should not care, whether you make profit or loss
  • What I do
  • Why it’s good to be average on the stock market
  • Immediate Tip: Avoid News!
  • Summary
  • You think this post is good? Then support Homemade Finance!

What is the Prospect Theory in Exchange Psychology?

Let’s do a little experiment:

  1. You have 50,000 € and invest the money in a portfolio. You were incredibly lucky and after three months you made a big profit of € 40,000. Therefore, you stand at a total of 90,000 €. However, you are unsure what you should do best now, because many analysts believe the market will remain very volatile. Should you sell now or stay invested? How do you decide?
  2. Just like before, you have 50,000 € and invest in exactly the same portfolio. Only this time you have really unbelievable bad luck and lost 40.000 € in only 3 months. This leaves only $ 10,000 left over from your original assets and experts say the market will continue to be very volatile. Should you sell now or go all out and stay invested because the market is sure to recover? How do you decide?

How did you decide in each situation? If, in the first scenario, you choose to take your profits and go all-out and invest in the second scenario, you’re in the majority of investors.

The problem here is this is not rational.

It only makes sense to behave the same way in both situations, because logically, there is no difference between the two cases. However, humans tend to rate gains mentally differently than losses.

That’s in our nature. If we gain something, then we are immediately afraid it could be taken away from us (call evil tongues something like that also become adults) whereas we have the hope to make up for our losses somehow, if we lose something.

In other words, we are risk-averse when we are in the plus and are willing to take risks if there is a loss. However, as I said, this is not logically consistent, because you should actually stick to your risk attitude regardless of book profits / losses.

It is also empirically proven that investors realize profits rather than losses. Simple and simple, because humans evaluate them emotionally differently. To act rationally should not make any difference to you if you have just made a profit or a loss, your decision must always be consistent.

In stock market psychology, this phenomenon is explained by Prospect Theory , so to speak about expectation theory. They discovered the psychologists Kahneman and Tversky, for which there was also the Nobel Prize. I would like to mention here that above is a reduced example without probabilities of this theory.

Conclusion 1: Only investors who act rationally will succeed in the long run.

Why you should not care, whether you make profit or loss

hamock photo

So now we know that we should not let emotion guide us and make our decisions consistently. So what should we do? The answer is simple:

Nothing!

That’s right, nothing. If you have a broad and well diversified portfolio then it does not matter if you made a profit or a loss, the best you can do is nothing. Terribly comfortable right?

Let me explain this: Basically, all this profit-taking and loss-limiting is nothing but market-timing. And you should not time the market (11th bid), because that will bring you nothing in the long run. Incidentally, the commandment is not mine, but comes from scientific investigations. And since you can not see any advantage by timing tests.

Conclusion 2: Markettiming is useless and most likely results in an underperfomance. No marketing.

That means we know thanks to stock market psychology and science that we must behave consistently and not time the market. So what should we do?

What I do

With what I know about the stock market and the economy, I’ve hammered out a simple plan:

Over a period of 20-30 years, I invest a fixed monthly amount in a portfolio that reflects the state of the art. So the usual: Diversification, low cost, market wide, and so on. In this portfolio is stubbornly paid whether it storms on the stock market or the sun is shining. This is done ice cold, year after year. And in the past that was the plan that always worked. This is from the stock exchange psychological point of view already an advantage, because it calms one despite questionable explanatory power. That’s the way man is built.

For longer investment periods, the average cost effect (cost average) continues to be used with a constant, regular investment amount. This means nothing else than buying stubborn regular buying when prices are high and when prices are down.

On average, you have then achieved a price somewhere in between. The nice thing about this is that you automatically buy fewer shares at a constant amount at high prices and more automatically at low prices. For cost averaging I will again write a detailed extra article. If you sign up for the newsletter, you will automatically receive an e-mail.

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Why Binary Options Are Scams And You Are Broke After 50 Trades

binaere options-was-homemade-finance

Binary options are scams and if you do not keep your hands off, you will not reach your financial goals.

As simple as that.

But since you certainly want to know more about why binary options are scams and definitely not good for you, I break up the topic in a good home-style-finance-style and pick it up for you.

In addition, I’ll show you why your trading capital is almost completely lost after only 50 trades. With bill, graphics and everything that goes with it.

content

  • Are binary options good or bad?
  • Binary options and psychology
  • The expected value of binary options
  • A bet with a company in Cyprus
  • How bloggers favor binary options fraud
  • Binary options and martingales
  • Are binary options gambling?
  • Conclusion: Why binary options are fraud
  • You think this post is good? Then support Homemade Finance!

Are binary options good or bad?

Short answer: Bad.

Long answer: First of all, a binary option is neither good nor bad, but only a binary option.

No more and no less.

Nobody forces you to act or deal with it. It’s just a financial product on the market. Quasi an offer. You can use it or not.

However, binary options are very different from other constructs because they are a derivative with very high leverage.

This amplifies the smallest price movements that you would otherwise perhaps not perceive.

A binary option is neither good nor bad, but just an idea. Because of its construction, it can lead to rapid gains (or losses), which appeals to greed in people who may not be in the finance theme.

Of course that’s bad but not the fault of the option. These greed, however, shamelessly exploit some brokers to offer this unsuitable and leveraged product to the end user.

Mostly under the boldest lure of quick profit. And so the greedy together with the shameless and moving money with horrendous transaction costs (more on that later) from A to B.

Added value for society? None.

At this point, in my opinion, a neutral idea becomes something bad.

If you want a return, you have to add value to someone else. Then and only then can you expect to make a profit yourself in the long run.

Summary of the Long Answer: Binary options are bad.

Binary options and psychology

As already indicated above, human emotions play a major role here. As always, when something should be sold.

In that case, it’s greed. The potential trader of binary options (= gamblers) hopes for quick money and financial independence. Of course with just sitting around in front of the laptop and stupid clicks.

And that’s what advertising for binary options is all about. In no time at all, Max M. achieved everything with nothing and no prior knowledge of binary options.

1 million euros with one euro bet in just one week (= gambling).

If you really believe that, do not be surprised if the money is gone faster after the deposit than you can count to three.

Of course, wealth accumulation and financial independence are possible, but in no case without a lot of work before.

Anyone who promises you anything else does not like you and will most likely try to pull you off in one way or another.

Greed has lost nothing in your life. She is a really bad adviser at the investment.

The expected value of binary options

Ok, enough palavert. Time to dive a bit into the numbers and figure out the value or benefit of a binary option for us.

I have selected a common offer:

A 60-second option on WTI grade petroleum.

If the price of oil rises in the next minute, we win back 85% of our stake plus our stake.

If the price of oil falls, the stake is completely lost.

I have picked out the three most important scientific papers from the HUGE mountain of existing literature on the behavior of prices on stock exchanges, which show that in the short term the prices have a 50-50 chance to rise or fall.

That’s what science says

Random Walks in Stock Market Prices – Eugene Fama (1995) in the Financial Analyst Journal

Forecasts of future prices, unbiased markets, and martingale models – Benoit Mandelbrot (1966) in the Journal of Business

Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work – Malkiel and Fama (1969) in the Journal of Finance

The prices on the stock exchanges are therefore proven to move up or down by accident for very short periods of time.

With this information, we can determine the expected value of an option, that is, the actual mathematical value for us:

0.50 * 0.85 – 0.50 * 1 = -0.075

In other words, for every euro you bet, you’ll get back on average € 0.925. Or – put differently again – you lose 7.5% of your bet per trade in the long run.

That’s what I call a shitty deal!

To illustrate this, I have graphically illustrated you how a theoretical starting balance of € 1,000 with each additional bet develops. We do not shoot any fresh money here and always have our entire balance in play.

expected value-binaere options

After just 50 bets, we only have $ 20 left over from our original $ 1,000.

For heaven’s sake!

If each of these bets was a 60-second bet, then in just 50 minutes we racked up 980 euros in binary options .

What a scam!

So binary options have a negative expectation and no one who seriously invests to achieve something would even touch that with a pair of pliers.

Of course, the development of your deposit / betting deposit from the above example does not perfectly follow the expected value in reality. Of course, due to simple coincidence, you can sometimes make a profit in between.

To illustrate, I have developed a simple but accurate simulation for the example above and run it ten times. We assume that our trading capital is divided into ten equal and simultaneously played single bets, and each time we receive a game with the expected value calculated above.

In the following chart you can see well that the individual developments on average in any case the same idealized expected value from the graph above, but individual scenarios in between at the beginning, in absolute terms, sometimes even in profit.

simulation-trading capital

Nonetheless, your mathematical expectation is still negative here as well. This leads to the first funny-looking situation that we are in the gambling with binary options, despite a possible profit mathematically always in the minus.

And believe me

Sooner or later we all get exactly what mathematics promises us.

Once we understand the paradoxical situation of having suffered a mathematical loss in between, despite a possible absolute gain, and that this is the only thing that matters in the long run, then we are on the right track.

With this principle, casinos, lottery, bookmakers, (retail) forex brokers and providers of binary options earn their money. After all, virtually no one can tell apart his real and mathematical profit.

That makes it possible to fool people into believing that they could be one of the few lucky people who, despite mathematically gigantic losses, have become rich.

The likelihood that you or I belong to it is virtually nonexistent, and I certainly do not trust my future to such a detrimental game for me.

Do you?

A bet with a company in Cyprus

Another aspect is that the ordinary binary option is not a real security, but a simple promise of payment by the broker.

That means there are no real stocks, commodities or foreign exchange behind your trade, but a bare promise that you will be paid money under certain conditions.

Then nothing.

That means, in the end, you’re betting on some windy (letterbox) company with mostly thin capital, which is usually based in Cyprus or Malta. Solid investment looks different if you ask me.

And just to make it clear once and for all:

This bullshit has as much to do with stock market as petrol with good scotch.

Binary options are just bets with an outrageous house edge.

Not more.

How bloggers favor binary options fraud

There is a conspiracy between bloggers and binary options providers. Well, maybe not directly a conspiracy, but a kind of out of control rudder for bloggers to fraudulently present binary options in a good light.

It works like this:

We have calculated above that a binary options broker earns 7.5 cents gross profit for each euro converted per option. In combination with the extremely fast turnaround times of the poor fortune knight’s credit, there are fantastic “returns” for the option provider.

He could only make quick money if the greedy would simply give him the money. But when I think about it, that’s exactly what they do.

No matter. In any case, the binary options business is highly profitable for the broker. This in turn results in a, in relation to, lush marketing budget.

This is also necessary to attract fresh, greedy money, for example, with the well-known advertising promises in Internet ads.

Therefore, a (ON!) Click on Google Adsense for the search term “binary options” currently costs a whopping $ 13.60, whereas for “stocks” only $ 3.71 is due. This huge difference shows that binary options providers are more likely to be more profitable than real brokers if they can afford those prices.

binaere options-adwords-jun-17

The cause of the more profitable business is overpriced trading or binary options fraud on would-be traders.

If a blog is financed by advertising revenue, then the temptation can be great sometimes even a few positive words about binary options to lose.

The result is hypocritical contributions with statements such as:

… have advantages and disadvantages.

… you can try it.

… only for experts but do it.

This is a betrayal of your readers and anyone who earns even a penny promoting binary options is in my eyes a disloyal rag.

Hence my call to you:

If you find a link or a deliberately placed binary options banner on a blog, then avoid that blog for the rest of your life. Suspicious are also “neutral” broker comparisons for binary options. Here is also strong on every mediated customer earned.

This blogger / blogger had only their own advantage at your expense in view and you can not assume that in the future elsewhere will not happen.

Binary options and martingales

As with any quick-rich-without-a-finger-to-stir system, there are a few “gurus” who try to guarantee surefire profits at short notice through progressive bets. Packed as an online course, e-book or similar.

Progressive bet only means that the bet is increased after each loss. Classic for a martingale would be the doubling of the bet. This then results in a classic sawtooth-like development of trading capital. With a gigantic loss at the end (yes the blue line goes down to zero).

With this “strategy” losses can be delayed for a while, but never avoided. I will go into more detail on Martingale in a separate post and can only recommend that you look at it as well. Because this mesh will meet you even more often in life.

There’s simply no secret binary options strategy that lets you make surefire profits and achieve everything overnight.

There is no such thing, certainly not in any ebook for € 29.90.

Investing instead of speculating should be your motto.

Are binary options gambling?

In my opinion, yes. You have all the crucial features of a bet:

  • Basically zero-sum game
  • Negative expectation due to house advantage
  • Payment promise of a semi-insured company in Cyprus or Malta
  • Expires in a very short timeframe
  • Deposit bonus on the first deposit as an incentive
  • Promises fast money without work

With the best of intentions, I can not tell the difference to a bet.

Conclusion: Why binary options are fraud

Since binary options scams open the door, I can only advise against the things violently.

Basically, it is similar to the currency trading : First there is a financial product, which is neither good nor bad per se, but only a neutral financial product. No more and no less.

Due to its construction, it has an enormous lever, which theoretically allows fast profits, which in turn appeals to some people.

Who does not want quick profits, right?

Fast profits with only a few euros use, a little clicking and the staring of a screen? Sounds good, exactly what I was looking for!

This financial product is then marketed by some resourceful sloth ears to inexperienced and usually somewhat greedy people as THE way to financial freedom.

With unspeakably high costs for the user and thus unspeakably high profits for the provider.

Because the extremely high leverage affects not only profits and losses, but also on the transaction costs.

Many stockbrokers say they know the leverage effect and know what it means, but they do not understand that it also drives up the cost of trading.

That’s why a binary options broker wants to get you to trade as well, preferably as much and every minute.

This will bring you a negative expectation in the boat. A mortal sin at the investment, because then the math works against you.

Do not mess with math, baby.

Numbers do not lie and therefore my conclusion for you: Binary options = fraud.

Anyone who promises me with little use and risk in the shortest possible time to achieve fantastic results, is a dubious rip-off and is immediately whipped mercilessly out the door.

And so you should handle it too. Because you’ve probably heard before:

Nothing worth having falls into your lap.

Speaking of flogging: Because it is foreseen that some providers of binary options will try to separate their links and advertising in the comments, I can also announce right away that it flies out immediately. So save us all the trouble right now.

Could I convince you that binary options are scams? Or do you think that’s too stuffy in your opinion? Discuss with me in the comments!

PS: Binary options have very little to do with classic options. If you want to know more, have a look at my full and straightforward explanation of options . It is worth it!

 

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16 Pareto Principle Examples for Immediate Application

Pareto principle-examples-homemade-finance

You’ve probably heard of it before:

The Pareto principle, also known as the 80-20 Rule (rarely 20-80 Rule). It roughly states that you can get 80% of the success with 20% of the effort. This principle is a very valuable tool to use your time better and more efficiently. However, it may be a bit difficult at the beginning to get a feel for this principle

So here are a few examples that you can apply right away to do more. Over time you will develop a feel for it and automatically scan your everyday life afterwards.

If you already know about the Pareto principle, then you are welcome to skip the first section of this article and scroll directly to the examples below.

content

  • Short and sweet about the Pareto principle
  • What does that mean for you now?
  • Pareto principle examples
  • A few admonishing words at the end
  • You think this post is good? Then support Homemade Finance!

Short and sweet about the Pareto principle

The Pareto Principle simply says that in many cases you can get the most out of your success with a fraction of the effort. I’ve shown you that graphically, unfortunately, has not become as nice as I had hoped, mea culpa.

As you can see, in the beginning the gain in success is steeper than when you would swap a unit bet for a unit of success linearly. Although this rule is not a natural law, it can be observed in many areas empirically in a similar way.

A classic example that everyone knows: Your apartment has once again urgently needed a spring cleaning. In the beginning, you see success relatively quickly, you pick up the clothes from the floor, put the furniture back in the right place, clean the dishwasher and everything does not look so bad anymore. But if you go into detail and wipe off the lampshade, then the gain in cleanliness is lower than at the beginning.

And when clothes pick up, etc., went fast, so eat the small work as just dusting a lot of time, but do not contribute much to a first better first impression.

Incidentally, this principle was discovered by this very same gentleman named Pareto (Italian), who has found that 80% of land ownership is spread over 20% of the population. Gradually, he has also been able to determine this distribution more or less in other areas.

What does that mean for you now?

The 80-20 rule can also apply to your finances. So 20% of your investments will make up 80% of your success. If you have reached 20% of the millionaire’s fortune, you will have achieved 80% of his satisfaction. The same applies to your financial freedom. We have already discussed, the way to financial independence worth it today. The Pareto principle is the reason for that.

If you have achieved 20% of the necessary wealth for your financial freedom, you will feel 80% of the satisfaction as if you have fully achieved the amount.

Pareto principle examples

Private

1. Clean up the apartment

You expect an hour visit and your place looks like S **, it would take 5 hours to clean up tippi toppi. Concentrate on the most obvious things in this remaining hour. Everyone sees clothes on the floor, not dust on the kitchen cabinets.

2. Divide your free time

Unfortunately everyone knows: too much but too little time and you can not decide? List the 5 most satisfying alternatives for you and strike the last four.

3. Learn for an exam

You are short of time and want to get the best out of the next exam? Put your focus on important things. Let’s say there are 5 different types of tasks, each with 5 examples that were calculated in the course. But time would only be enough to practice all five examples of a single type. Then you now count on a task of each type instead.

4. Learn a new language

With only 20% of existing vocabulary, you can master 80% of all situations (reading, writing, listening, speaking) in a foreign language.

5. Mop out the wardrobe

4/5 of your clothes you wear little or not at all. If you remove them from your closet, you will have a clearer wardrobe with just the parts you really like.

6. Slimming

Eat 80% of your calories with 20% of your food. So if you want to lose weight reduce it specifically.

7. Do not consume so much news

Only 20% (if any) of the headlines you read have any informational value. Spend less time on news portals or Twitter and do something different instead.

8. Reduce stress

80% of your stress is generated by 20% of the activities and people. Try to reduce these activities as much as possible

 

finances

9. Build up a depot

Many people invest a lot of time in the clever construction of a sophisticated depot, only to find that each widely diversified depot has a very similar performance over the long run. So why mess around with the umpteenth Japan Small Tech Cap ETF when a simple world portfolio does it? In the saved time, you could put in a few overtime hours and earn some startup capital for your account.

10. Pick a broker

It is very similar when choosing a broker. You spend hours trying to find the one that might be a few euros cheaper per month. In doing so, after a short search, one finds that standard brokers in Germany all have very similar terms. Choose one of these and do not make any science out of it.

11. Find the best daily interest rates

The biggest absurdity in my opinion and at the same time the German saver’s favorite hobby. Hunt on the Internet for the latest top interest rates. For a decimal place better return are invested hours of time, if one calculates the hourly wage one would have to start with most of the amounts to make it laugh.

Do not make it too complicated, look for a provider of overnight money, which in the past has consistently delivered ordinary interest (not necessarily the best but not the worst) and the arbor is finished. You prefer spending free time with friends, working or learning something.

Professional

12. Prioritize your tasks

If your task sheet is hopelessly overcrowded, write down all to do points and prioritize. The supreme tasks first and the rest you do later. For example, if there are 10 things on your list, then you’re going to be down the last eight and do the two important ones first. You do that every day anew and you will see, your task melt melts faster and more thoroughly.

13. Focus on the important customers

The prime examples when it comes to the Pareto principle. 20% of customers generate 80% of sales. So it makes sense to focus on exactly this clientele in the work.

14. Focus on the important products

The same applies to products in a company. 20% of the products account for 80% of sales. So concentrate on these

15. Work in a new software

Studies have shown that 80% of people only use 20% of the full functionality of a software. That means you should dare to deal with new software. Often it does not take so much time to be halfway inside. Furthermore, it is, depending on the software, another qualification.

16. Focus on the biggest troublemakers

80% of complaints come from 20% of customers. So if you want to do it as efficiently as possible, then focus first on these and then on the others.

A few admonishing words at the end

The Pareto principle is a very powerful tool to do more, but as so often it is more a Pi times thumb story. In the past, the 80-20 principle has been more or less stubbornly applied to almost any situation. Empiricism does not always confirm the 80-20 ratio, sometimes it can be shifted in one direction or another, for example 90-10, 70-30 or even 20-90.

Incidentally, the numbers do not always have to add up to 100. This has probably just been a good fit and people like “round” numbers and that’s why you seem to have stayed there.

Furthermore, it is not always possible after 80% success simply to stop, sometimes you just have to go for the 100%, with the corresponding higher effort.

Also, the 20-80 rule should not be an invitation to sloppiness. Just because 80% can be reached quickly does not mean that you should not do your job properly. On the contrary, I claim that the ability to work conscientiously makes the Pareto Principle applicable in the first place. Because 20% bullshit is still bullshit.

Finally, one can say that the Pareto principle is a useful tool to make more of your life. No matter in which area, be it professional, (passive) or private.

Time is a limited good for all of us, so it is even more important to spend it only with the really important things.

 

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Stocks For Beginners: 23 Things I Do Differently Today

Stocks are the most honest investment ever. Point.

They make you an entrepreneur and let you participate in the real economy.

Risk aware and calculated wear, instead of being fed by banks with lousy interest and wegschuckucken behind the deposit insurance.

If only it were not such a complex topic.

Sometimes you feel really slain and do not know what to look for or how to get started.

That’s why I’ve put together everything that I know about stocks for beginners.

All the insights here are the quintessence of full time study and my own experiences.

I would like to share all this with you now.

content

  • What is a stock anyway?
  • What does a broker do?
  • What happens if my broker goes bankrupt?
  • How do I buy stocks or ETF?
  • Chart analysis is bullshit!
  • Have patience. At least 20 years
  • 5 minutes of time a month are enough
  • Diversify, diversify, diversify!
  • No single shares!
  • Keep the costs low!
  • All head thing: You yourself are your biggest enemy!
  • Ignore stock market news!
  • Just go to your depot once a month: then when you buy
  • Do not think about your portfolio
  • Do not buy shares through your house bank!
  • Do not buy active funds!
  • Should I start day trading?
  • No forex / CFD / binary options!
  • No raw materials!
  • There are no hot tips
  • Stocks are not everything: you also need enough on the daily allowance
  • Always use limit orders!
  • Stocks for Beginners: Be Stubborn!
  • You think this post is good? Then support Homemade Finance!

What is a stock anyway?

A stock is a little pinch of a company.

It makes you a small co-entrepreneur, with all the opportunities and risks.

A company with a great business model can create a lot of value and bring you a lot of money, but it can also burn a lot of money.

This is the business risk that you have to take to get more return than on the daily allowance

With stocks, many beginners immediately think about how dangerous it can be, but look at it like this:

You now own a part of the economy. Part of a big and hopefully successful cooperation.

I think that’s a nice thought.

But nothing is straightforward in life, you have to be ready to accept that.

What does a broker do?

A broker has in the end two tasks:

  1. He goes public for you and gets you stocks or ETF
  2. He watches your stock and keeps it in a safekeeping account for you

Retention is usually free these days. For him to go shopping for you you have to pay him a fee.

What happens if my broker goes bankrupt?

Nothing in theory. I also asked myself this question at the beginning and then informed myself a bit. Your deposit with your broker is legally and on balance separated from the broker itself.

That is, if it goes bankrupt your securities are still there, you just have to move to another broker. In practice, then, you may not be able to sell for a few days.

From a legal point of view, so everything is regulated. I also believe that the likelihood of a Brokerpleite is not so high. I am also aware of no Brokerpleite recently in Germany.

How do I buy stocks or ETF?

It is easy peasy to enter the stock market today. Find a proper broker in Germany and open an account. Most hardly differ in price or performance.

After you have started to put together a personal share or ETF savings plan, look for next for each security the so-called ISIN (comparable to the ISBN in books) out. In virtually every known broker interface, there is a search function somewhere where you can enter them.

Then set quantity and price and you’re done. You really can not go wrong.

Chart analysis is bullshit!

Many beginners believe that you can use a kind of voodoo on stocks that can predict things.

Especially the drawing of lines and any patterns seems to have done to the people.

That’s nonsense!

Man is a pattern recognizer and believes he can recognize something in everything and everyone. That’s part of our problem-solving behavior.

This works on the stock market but not. Courses in the past say virtually nothing about the future.

As always, believe me not blind, but what scientists have found out:

Fama (1970): Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work

It’s just a waste of time. If you spend overtime instead of reading charts like in a coffee grounds, you’re probably more likely to spend more money afterwards.

Have patience. At least 20 years

Many new entrants are often frustrated because the portfolio has been down for months. There is nothing to gloss over, it will even happen for years that you are in the dark.

That is normal.

On the stock market you have to bring a long breath as a beginner. For example, the duration of the longest loss period in the S & P 500 was around 16 years, during the Great Depression.

If you buy regularly with equal amounts, then the duration of the loss period has significantly reduced due to the cost-averaging effect.

Nevertheless, we are talking about a period of more than 10 years.

Therefore, you should bring the time accordingly. It should be 20, better 30 years old. If you do not have that much time then you should invest less in equities and more in solid bonds.

5 minutes of time a month are enough

Especially at the beginning of the stock market, you are very enthusiastic, have just bought his first share or his first ETF and would like to deal with it all day long.

That’s ok and it’s nice, but at some point you can imagine that the enthusiasm is going to abate.

That too is ok, because you do not need more than 5 minutes of time a month to run a decent portfolio.

These 5 minutes I use for logging into your online broker and the purchase of your depot. There is nothing more to do.

Do not feel guilty about it, there is no scientific proof that more time in front of the screen leads to better results.

Diversify, diversify, diversify!

Even though you’ve heard that countless times, it’s actually the royal rule on the stock market and should become your mantra.

Diversification is everything.

Really everything.

Diversify to:

  1. Geographical regions (eg Europe, North America, etc.)
  2. sectors
  3. Industrialized and emerging countries
  4. Big and small businesses

This list does not claim to be exhaustive, but at least give you an idea of ​​what you have to think about.

If you’ve been on Homemade Finance for a while, then you’ve probably noticed that I celebrate ETF very much. This is simply because, as a private investor, it was not possible to set up a portfolio so cheaply and so diversified before.

ETFs have made the financial markets a little fairer. In one fell swoop, you can get 800 companies into the custody account at low cost, automatically covering most of the above criteria. Therefore, I also advise newcomers to start early to deal with the topic of ETF

The Bible on Diversification is by Markowitz: Portfolio Selection

No single shares!

I’m sorry but I’m not Warren Buffett and you probably never will. That is also OK.

Many beginners in the field of equities believe that you can beat the market with a little stock reading on the weekend and can generate excessive returns.

I’m not saying it’s impossible, I’m just saying it’s hard to reach for ordinary people, because the effort is gigantic.

According to legend, Warren Buffett studies nothing but company balance sheets almost all day long simply because he enjoys it. I can not and do not want to keep up with that. Do you?

The lesson is that unless you are Warren Buffett, do not bet on individual stocks, but diversify as widely as possible. By diversified I mean not 5 or 50, but 500+ companies from all over the world in the portfolio. If your purse does not like that, like mine, then it can be done cheaply through ETF .

Keep the costs low!

An important insight that I would like to recommend to any newcomer to shares is that there is nothing certain in the stock market. Man is a control freak and he wants to have everything under control.

Bad news: nobody controls the market. He wavers and sometimes wild. This is the price you have to pay to earn more than negative interest on the account.

But there is one exception: the costs

Keep your order fees low and make sure you have no active funds or ETF with a very high TER / TD.

Usually this is done after an hour and so you have done everything you can control on the stock market to the best of my conscience.

All head thing: You yourself are your biggest enemy!

In my opinion, the real challenge is to be as passive and calm as possible. Why?

Well, science tells us private investors:

  1. diversify
  2. Keep costs low
  3. Bespare regularly
  4. Stop fooling around

The first three points are done quickly with a neat ETF portfolio.

Then it may be that someday, when there is nothing left to do, a quiet voice in your head announces and tells you things like:

Maybe I should wait with the purchase, it could be even cheaper

Maybe I should get out to avoid the crisis

Maybe I should …

Do not listen to yourself. Make a proper plan and keep it stubborn and consistent for a few decades with regular amounts. Then chances are good that a decent return comes around.

The art is not to build a smart portfolio or to find the perfect composition. Rather, the art of consistently pursuing a plan that has even begun is without dissuading itself from it.

This is also the biggest challenge for me personally, I suffer from planneritis.

I give my best

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7 Reasons Why You Should NOT Use A Robo-Advisor

robo-advisor

Robo-Advisor are springing up everywhere like mushrooms, offering their services to investors with warm words.

Automated advice, automatic rebalancing and graphic evaluations in flashy-hued colors.

These are basically the services that these providers want to sell to you. Of course, in exchange for a practical all-in-fairy, say percent of your fortune.

I now had plenty of time to look at the offers on the market and came to the conclusion that no one needs such Robo-Advisor.

Why and why do I want to explain you more precisely for 7 reasons. Then, of course, I would be interested in your opinion on the subject.

So let’s go!

content

  • What is a Robo-Advisor?
  • 1. Robo-Advisor are expensive
  • 2. Robo-Advisor want to replace basic financial education
  • 3. Robo-Advisor are another middleman
  • 4. A Robo-Advisor is not a consultant
  • 5. Even more paperwork to manage
  • 6. Nobody pats you on the shoulder (or in the face)
  • 7. The tax code remains the same
  • Conclusion: Robo-Advisor are pretty useless and too expensive
  • You think this post is good? Then support Homemade Finance!

What is a Robo-Advisor?

A robo-advisor is ultimately a kind of automated consultation over the Internet without a human being being involved.

You’ll be asked a few questions to determine your risk tolerance and investment preferences and, based on that, you’ll get some suggestions.

Depending on the provider, you can then have them implemented directly by the Robo-Advisor and if you wish, he will automatically rebalance your portfolio in the future .

In general, there are two types of robo-advisor.

For one thing, those who try to tell you they can actively shuffle your fortune between different securities or asset classes so that in the end, something better than the market return for you pops out of it.

And secondly, those who implement and rebalance a recommended, ready-made, passive portfolio in its original composition so that everything stays as it is.

The former type of robo-advisor is therefore active and undoubtedly doomed to failure, as are all the active fund managers, market timers and copy-traders out there, who underperform in good regularity.

That’s a scientific fact (see here , here and here ) and that’s why we will not even look at this species.

We limit ourselves here to the providers who want to help you to better implement a passive ETF portfolio .

robo-advisor-comparative
In addition, the passive ETF portfolio is differentiated between two other forms:

1. Pure consulting tools, so in the end a pure software / web application that spits you recommendations and then you even implement in your own depot.

2. Asset Management, which not only gives you recommendations, but also fully automatically implements them.

robo-advisor-compare-different

Their raison d’être justifies Robo-Advisor by making it easier for investors to start a diversified stock market engagement and to manage their deposit comfortably.

To be honest, I do not think so, because what the Robos mostly advise are simply simple ETF deposits and you can knit them cheaper as well as supersimpel themselves.

Homemade Finance.

But I am a friend of rational arguments and to convince you of my opinion, I have collected my reasons here and would like to share them with you, of course.

1. Robo-Advisor are expensive

Let’s not talk about the bush anymore. As so often in life, there is a big catch that makes the countless other small hooks next to it look like waste paper.

Almost like a whaling harpoon next to a fishing line with worm below.

In the case of Robo-Advisor, this harpoon costs.

Because their services let the providers pay very well.

An example, without naming a specific provider by name, because I do not want to advertise here:

0.75% of the portfolio + 0.25% Total Expense Ratio of the ETF

As I see it, this provider would have liked to pay around three times the price of its offer as an ETF alone.

Threefold, mind you.

And honestly, the service is never worth it, in my opinion.

Because what do I get exactly for it?

A questionnaire to get you started, a pre-selection of funds, a bit of rebalancing once a year and maybe even an app.

I’m really sorry, but I certainly do not put 0.75% pa on the table.

These are things that I can easily make cheaper, even if I consider the value of my own time.

Of course, there are cheaper providers on the market, some of them starting at 0.25%. But even then cost you the fun in addition as much as an average ETF to which it actually goes here!

Not about any additional advisory buhei around it.

And you have already read it often enough: Costs are virtually the only thing that we can influence in our favor.

So why start spending a lot of money for little added value now?

2. Robo-Advisor want to replace basic financial education

One point that interests me personally is the fact that Robo-Advisor is basically trying to replace financial education.

Hey man, there is no reason to deal with this bland financial instrument. Just leave it to us!

This is the core message behind the robos and it causes me mixed feelings.

For one thing, it might encourage people who have not yet been on the stock market to finally do so.

And this mostly through a broadly diversified portfolio at a price that is a bit too high but not overly excessive overall.

Of course, that’s great, because my goal is to get more people excited about the stock market.

On the other hand, on the other hand, I also want people to really deal with it and not just put their money in the hands of anyone and say:

Come on, do that.

My ultimate goal is to provide you with financial knowledge that will advance you on your path as a self-determined investor.

Not as a dependent puppet of any consulting service.

Knowledge is everything and while Robo-Advisor may be able to get more people involved in equities, they also provide an incentive not to engage in more fundamental finance.

And that’s a pity. Because what you can learn can be applied to many more areas of life, not just stock market and money.

Sometimes in areas where you might not think it possible.

Therefore, I am not only objectively, but also personally the Robos very skeptical.

3. Robo-Advisor are another middleman

There is a certain, albeit somewhat simplified ideal, if you want to invest in a company:

You go, hand in your money and get a security from the company of your choice.

Only in the rarest cases is it just so direct. You almost always have to buy securities on the stock market.

But now you can not just go public on the stock market and then keep your securities at home. You need a broker for both, who will give you access first and then keep your property safe.

So this is another middleman between you and the company:

robo-advisor eliminate

And it goes even further because we both know that you should ALWAYS invest diversified.

With normal sized assets and saving rates, this is only possible to a limited extent. For example, with 500 € a month I can not buy any company in the world at the same time.

But wait!

With ETF, we can do that now, at least approximately.

This, however, requires another middleman between you and the companies:

The problem with middlemen is that they always cost you. Anyone passing on a security to you, so to speak, wants to be paid by the buyer, that is, you.

There are middlemen we CAN NOT do without. These include the stock market and brokers, because without them, it simply would not work. Only then will we have access to the capital market.

Then there are middlemen we DO NOT want to do without.

I count ETF providers.

We want the widest possible diversification and without iShares & Co. we would not be able to do that with our small sums. Therefore, the advantages clearly outweigh the costs and we let the middleman join the stock market as well as brokers.

Robo-Advisor would now like to do the same and join in the illustrious series. This is justified by the colorfully advertised features that they offer you.

But I have to say here that in my opinion costs and benefits for you in no advantageous relationship to each other.

Therefore:

Eliminate the middlemen!

no-robo-advisor

4. A Robo-Advisor is not a consultant

Even though Advisor, or consultant, may be in the name of it, the robos are, just as funnily enough, barely able to:

Advice .

Almost every provider is limited to a handful of simple questions about your risk attitude and on the basis of this, you will then be suggested an “individual” matching between stocks and bonds.

That’s it with the advice.

Wow.

This is abundantly unspectacular and raises a bit the question of why the providers call their service “advisor”.

Because if you put it more meanly, then you could call Robo-Advisor as expensive brokers / agents with limited offer and a multiple-choice test for new customers.

To what extent this should help you on your way to your goals, that just does not open up to me.

If you want a consultation (which may be legitimate, because sometimes it is wise to buy external know-how) then you should stick to a real person.

Because this can respond to you again more individually than a Robo-Advisor will ever do.

If you absolutely need someone by your side, then you’d better put some money into it and get a decent solution, rather than something semi-solid like a standardized questionnaire on the internet.

This leads us directly to the next reason:

5. Even more paperwork to manage

I have said it many times, but again: I hate paperwork .

Each of us already has way too much of it anyway, so I make sure that it only gets as slow as possible.

That’s exactly the case when using a Robo-Advisor.

Especially when the robo just suggests and in the end you do the dirty work yourself.

Then, in addition to the unavoidable paperwork of your broker, you have the avoidable paperwork of your robo-advisor on top.

That means a lot of additional fine print and again additional understanding of another level of fees.

Zero buck on it, if I can formulate it so timidly.

6. Nobody pats you on the shoulder (or in the face)

If you already need an advisor, what should you look for?

N / A?

Very easily:

On plenty of Muckis.

Why?

Because a good consultant has exactly two ongoing tasks:

1. Face Slapping when the market is rising and you run the risk of being overconfident. Keyword buy on credit.

2. You kick in the buttocks when the market is running badly and you run the risk of getting cold feet. Keyword next financial crisis .

A Robo-Advisor can not do both, and a push notification on a cell phone or an e-mail is far less effective than a Conan the Barbarian Schwarzenegger in a suit on your doorstep.

Scientific studies prove that.

An advisor needs to be able to keep you on track if you run the risk of doing something stupid. How to sell when it gets worse.

7. The tax code remains the same

An aspect in which Robo-Advisor could actually score points is, paradoxically, left to the left:

The steering wheel.

I think that’s a point where many investors would want more service and would be willing to pay for it.

More like a Robo-Tax-Advisor.

Which number do I have to enter exactly where? What special features do I have to consider? What can I optimize?

For that I would probably even willing to give some return, if these things would run as automated as possible.

Why does not anyone offer that yet?

Well, probably because it would be very complicated, both from the topic and the implementation and since every few years also something changes, see, for example, investment fund tax reform law.

Therefore, not really anyone has ventured on this point.

That’s a pity.

Conclusion: Robo-Advisor are pretty useless and too expensive

Basically, I find the idea of ​​Robo-Advisor not so wrong.

He once again takes the complexity out of setting up and maintaining his own ETF portfolio and packages it in the form of chic graphics that are eye-pleasing to the consumer.

Actually very nice.

The crux is:

This service is never worth 0.75%, 0.50% or even just 0.25% per year.

I’m sorry, but even with a normal broker , it’s not rocket science with its own ETF depot to get started and then the thing from time to rebalancen .

It is not that complicated and requires almost no time.

In addition, some brokers also offer quite nice graphical evaluations of the composition and development of your portfolio and what you are missing, you can also carve yourself in Excel.

All in all:

The nice features that Robo-Advisor offers you are just that and nothing more:

Nice features.

The point is: you really do not need them. Especially not for this price.

I happily forego high-resolution graphics in some flashy apps if I can get 0.75% more return in return.

After all, we finally went public:

To make more profit.

Robo-Advisor does not really help you with that and that’s why I say:

No unnecessary frippery.

Only you, your head stuffed with homemade finance know-how and Excel against the rest of the world.

Because that’s all it takes.

 

 

Market





 
 
Stéphane Richard, CEO of Orange, and Martin Bouygues, owner of Bouygues Telecom, on July 17, 2012 in Paris.

The switch to three operators would bury the price war, thus benefiting each of the actors.

Will Orange succeed in swallowing Bouygues Telecom? The new telecoms soap opera is just starting. But the discussions to buy the second by the first, initiated before Christmas, reach a critical point. The two parties have entered the loop Free and Numericable-SFR (owned by Patrick Drahi, Libération shareholder), who will let this week know what their requirements are.

For the operation to succeed, all this small world is indeed condemned to hear. Because the Competition Authority will not let go the constitution of a dominant player. Moreover, the state, which holds 23% of Orange, will ensure both its shareholder interests and that the investment in ultra-fast broadband, the priority of the government in place, does not suffer from four to three players in the market.

After the possible acquisition of Bouygues Telecom for an amount estimated at 10 billion euros, Orange will be forced to sell its rivals frequencies, antennas, shops, or even customers. The question of employment is also to be solved: nearly 7,000 employees are concerned at Bouygues Telecom.

“The discussions are complex and the journey fraught with pitfalls,” says one of the leaders involved. The tone is nevertheless positive. To listen to the murmurs of each other, under the seal of confidentiality, the deal is on track. “This is the first time there is consensus, coward another. Nobody is left out. And everyone has an interest in the market being pacified a bit. “ An overview of what each of the four operators can gain from it.

Orange, the cubits

The CEO of Orange plays it to relax when he evokes the prospect of an absorption of Bouygues Telecom. One is “rather relaxed”, explained Stéphane Richard mid-January after having repeated that he was the one who had the “least need” of a consolidation. So why does it want it? In 2014, the owner of the already archidominant historical operator in France approached Bouygues, it is now the latter who is the plaintiff. For Richard, the issue is the critical size in a market in concentration in Europe, controlled by a handful of behemoths in the United States or China. Ending this anachronism is urgent, he argues, if we want to build European digital heavyweights, which Orange wants to be part of. If he says that “prices will remain low,” the passage of four to three players would be the advantage for Orange to end the war in this area. What better margins and give him free rein to beef up his investments, already the most important today.

His model is that of a “competition by infrastructure”, much more “viable” to three that four convergent fixed-mobile operators in France, he explains. In other words a competition on services and networks of better quality rather than an overbidding on the lowest prices, which he deems deadly for the entire sector and which resulted in a 50% drop in rates. since 2012.

Bouygues Telecom, an idea behind the head

It is little to say that Bouygues Telecom has suffered from the price war that began in 2012. Between the first nine months of 2011 and the same period in 2015, its turnover has melted by 1 billion euros. Its operating margin, which is its pre-tax profit, dividend and investment level, plunged seven points. Despite a slight rebound in recent months, Martin Bouygues knows he has fallen below the waterline. In the long run, it is untenable. The company he created twenty-two years ago is in danger of sinking. It must be saved, and if possible with honors. For him, it’s a matter of pride.

He missed the acquisition of SFR, won by Drahi in 2014, and refused to sell to the same Drahi in 2015. In 2016, the son of Francis Bouygues, often mocked to be an heir by his rivals, has turned to Orange. Resigned? Not only. The man, more cunning than his good-natured face, would like to make him look, has an idea behind his head. He is about to give up his baby for a few billion euros in cash and a stake in Orange. We are talking about 10% to 15% of the capital, which would make him the second largest shareholder of the company behind the state. While waiting to be the first, if the public power comes one day to disengage. While he was cornered, Martin Bouygues could, therefore, find himself in a position of strength in one of the largest telecommunications operators on the planet. A behemoth achieving 40 billion euros in turnover, that its CEO, Stéphane Richard wants to launch the assault on Europe and Africa. There are economic failures that end worse.

Numericable-SFR, relief

Six months ago, Patrick Drahi, eyeing Bouygues Telecom, was curtly dismissed by Martin Bouygues. “Everything is not for sale,” had justified the heir, who said he dreaded that the operation ends in a social butcher shop or that it caps before it takes place, for lack of funding. Implied: I have no confidence in Drahi. The offer of the latter, however, valued Bouygues Telecom to 10 billion euros. The same amount that Orange offers today … Obviously, everything is not for sale, and especially not anyone.

But, Bouygues needs to get along with Drahi if he wants to go to the end of the deal with Orange. To convince the Autorité de la concurrence, it must necessarily sell assets (frequencies, shops, customers). At what price? “Bouygues did not want our 10 billion? No way we spend one euro to help him this time, “ says a leader of Altice, revenge. Behind the language bravado, a message: Drahi will write as few zeroes as possible on his check. He will not, however, venture to ruin everything. “It’s a good operation for everyone,” concedes his entourage. A move to three operators would relieve Numericable-SFR, which has lost 1.2 million customers in the mobile. The parent company, Altice, needs its French operator to raise cash and repay a debt of 48 billion- great post to read. Because the markets are worried: the share price of Altice has lost 60% since July.

Free, the time trial

The thunderous arrival of Free on the mobile market at the beginning of 2012 upset the sector, and there is nothing that could please the hacker, Xavier Niel. Breaking the price, the founder of Iliad, the parent company, was perfectly successful: four years later, his company is installed in the landscape, with 11 million mobile customers, and its market capitalization has more than doubled. It exceeds 12 billion euros. And the fortune of its first shareholder has exploded … The breakthrough of Niel is all the more fantastic that he did without a mobile network. Since the beginning, it has rented Orange’s infrastructures and passed the traffic generated in 2G and 3G by its customers. This roaming agreement gave him the means to accomplish his blitzkrieg. But it will end gradually from 2018, according to the wish of Arcep, the regulatory authority of the sector.

By then, Free will have deployed its network. If it has accelerated its investments in recent months, especially in 4G, it remains a race against the clock – he is particularly struggling on 3G. Aware that the schedule is tight, Niel has been pushing for consolidation for two years. He made successive alliances with everyone and agreed to put up to nearly $ 2 billion to play the facilitator. The acquisition of Bouygues by Orange could allow him to achieve his ends. He remains nevertheless greedy. “Out of the question that the operation leads to a duopoly made up of Orange and SFR in a number of customers,” warns one of his relatives. In other words, Free wants to fill his subscriber portfolio in the story. Not sure rivals are giving him this new gift.


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